 # Understanding pre-orders

Marketplace

## Understanding how pre-orders works

Most item listed on the marketplace can be pre-ordered by players for the amount they’d like. When there are pre-order for an item, there’s a chance that this item will skip the bid phase and immediately go to the player with the highest pre-order. But the game barely tells you anything about how they work internally. In a recent patch, some changes have been made to that system, but it’s still confusing for most players because of how poorly the wording of that patch was.

### When does an item gets pre-ordered?

At the time being there’s 2 possibilities :

1. The listed item is a PEN item. If this is the case, there’s a 100% chance that the item will go to pre-order. Obviously it can still go to the bid phase if no-one has a pre-order on said item.
2. The listed item is NOT a PEN item. There’s a 45 % chance than this item goes to pre-order. The initial chancee was 40%, but this got changed and increased by 12.5% : `0.4 * 1.125 = 0.45`

The 40% has been datamined but I haven’t personnaly extensively tested it myself. Feel free to use your own values based on your own testing if you don’t trust that data.

### How much money do I get when someone preorder my item?

This is where it gets tricky.

First of all, let’s define those variables :

• price : It’s the price you register your item at.
• preorder : It’s the price of the highest pre-order for this item.
• tax : The marketplace tax, which is 0.845 with a value pack.

The formula has a condition which can be expressed using a very basic if/else block as :

IF `(preorder < price * 3)` THEN `(0.2 * preorder + 0.8 * price) * tax` ELSE `(price * 1.4) * tax`

That formula is all you need. But we’re gonna dig a bit deeper. Let’s imagine 2 scenarios, the first one where the condition is true, and the second one where the condition is false.

#### First Scenario

In this scenario the condition is true which means we have `preorder < 3 * price`.

You might be wondering how am I getting this condition by the way. Well, it’s just a simplification of the non-sense wording from the infamous patch note that I spoke about earlier where they said :

• The amount of bonus Silver granted to the seller, when selling items via Pre-Order in the Marketplace, has been adjusted.
• When you sell an item via Pre-Order, you will get a bonus of 20% of the difference between the the registered price and the price at which the item was sold.
• The difference cannot be bigger than twice the registered price.

Which means : `(preorder - price) < 2 * price`, which gives our `preorder < 3 * price`, which is much simpler to grasp.

• So we have `((preorder - price) * 0.2 + price) * tax`
• Let’s simplify … `(0.2 * preorder - 0.2 * price + price ) * tax`
• Which give us `(0.2preorder + 0.8price) * tax` or if you want numbers with a value pack directly : `0.169 * preorder + 0.676 * price`

Here’s a short example :

• I’m listing my item for 100 millions.
• The pre-order for it is 150 millions.
• 150m - 100m is lower than 2 x 100m , so assuming a VP, we can safely use our formula : `0.169 * 150 + 0.676 * 100 = 92.95`

We would get exactly 92.95 millions for this trade, which is quite nice :D

#### Second scenario

In this scenario the condition is false, which means that `preorder >= 3 * price`

… Or with the patch note wording : `(preorder - price) >= 2 * price`.

“The difference cannot be bigger than twice the registered price.”

• So : `(price * 2 * 0.2 + price) * tax`
• Let’s simplify that to : `price * 1.4 * tax`
• … and with a VP : `price * 1.183`

Which means that the maximum amount of silver you’ll get, no matter how high the pre-order is, will be `price * 1.183`.

Following on previous example, let’s assume than instead of 150m, the pre-order for it is 300m.

• 300m - 100m is equal to 2 * 100m, so assuming a VP, we know that we’ll get this `100 * 1.183 = 118.9`

We would get exactly 118.9 millions for this trade, which is very good ! Note that it doesn’t get higher than this, it’s the maximum.

### Bonus scenarios

Now that we know how the formula works, let’s have a few quick practical scenarios.

#### I’m selling something I should probably keep…

Let’s assume you are selling a lot of something extremely valuable but very poorly priced by the game. The pre-order is ALWAYS going to use the second formula `price * 1.4 * tax` If you want to know on average how much you’ll get for your sales, we can get to this formula:

There’s a 45% chance your item will get pre-ordered, so :

• `((0.55 * price) + (0.45 * price * 1.4)) * tax`
• Which we can simplify to `price * 1.18 * tax`
• or assuming a VP : `price * 0.9971`.

So let’s assuming that for some reasons you are selling a lot of something like stonetail fodder (T9 horse attempt material), you will get on average `fodder_price * 0.9971` because the demand for this item is super high since player wants their pegasus ! Always think twice before selling those valuable items, because you might regret that decision later.

#### I’m RNG carried and got a 40fs TET/PEN accessory/item

This one is super easy but I assume most players wants a quick reference to it. If you’re selling such an item it’s :

• PEN item : `price * 1.4 * tax` and with a VP : `price * 1.183`.

• Given the state of the economy and how rare this items are, there shall always be a pre-order, and it will be high enough. Make sure to post a server announcement before posting such an item and you should always find someone to pre-order it.

• NB: On a newly released server, this might not be the case. Consider not selling.

• This might not always be the case. Don’t blame if your PEN Reblath didn’t get pre-ordered, or if nobody has any money left for some reasons…

• TET item or lower

• 55 % chance to be `price * tax` or with a VP `price * 0.845` and
• If the pre-order is high enough : 45% chance to be `price * 1.4 * tax` and with a VP : `price * 1.183`.
• If the pre-order isn’t high enough : 45% chance to be `(0.2preorder + 0.8price) * tax` and with a VP : `0.169 * preorder + 0.676 * price`

Let’s imagine a scenario with a TET Ogre ring :

• Base current price : 86 363 635
• Base max-price : 94 999 999 (110% of current price)
• TET base price : 6 909 090 816 (800% of base price)
• TET max-price : 7 599 999 898 (110% of TET base price, this is the price you register your item at.)

If you’re unlucky you’ll only get `7 599 999 898 * tax`, so 6 421 999 913 silver with a VP. You will be unlucky 55% of the time.

If you’re lucky, you’ll get more more. Use this formula to determine how much based on the estimated pre-orders `(0.2preorder + 0.8price) * tax`.

BUT if the preorder is equal or greater than 22 799 999 694 silver, you will get `price * 1.4 * tax` and with a VP : `price * 1.183`.

Which means that the best case scenario will yield you 8 990 799 879 silver which is signifcantly higher than the worse case scenario. If other players are wealthy, this should happens 45% of the case for ‘meta’ items.

So there’s a difference of 2 568 799 966 silver between the worse and the best case scenario, which is not negligible !

### What Should I Take Away From This?

• If there’s a pre-order set for your item, there’s a 45% chance it goes to pre-order, and a 100% chance if it’s a PEN item.
• The maximum amount of silver you can get for a pre-ordered item is : `price * 1.4 * tax.`
• You get the maximum amount of silver if the pre-order is at least 3 times higher than the price of your item.
• If you don’t get the max, this is what you get : `(0.2preorder + 0.8price) * tax`